AgentSkillsCN

counter-evidence

搜寻与投资理念相悖的证据

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: counter-evidence
description: Search for evidence that contradicts the investment thesis
allowed-tools: get_news_sentiment get_insider_activity get_put_call_ratio get_market_movers
metadata:
  domain: debater
  complexity: advanced

Counter Evidence Workflow

OBJECTIVE: Find legitimate reasons why the thesis might be wrong.

Step 1: Identify Thesis Pillars

What are the key bullish arguments?

  • •Growth assumptions (revenue, earnings, market share)
  • •Competitive advantages (moat, technology, brand)
  • •Market opportunity claims (TAM, growth rate)
  • •Management quality assertions
  • •Valuation justification

Step 2: Targeted Counter-Search

For each pillar, actively look for contradictions:

  • •Use get_news_sentiment with bearish keywords:
    • •"[company] risks", "[company] challenges", "[company] problems"
    • •"[company] competition", "[company] losing", "[company] decline"
  • •Use get_insider_activity for insider selling
  • •Use get_put_call_ratio for options market sentiment (high PCR = bearish bets)

Step 3: Assess Severity

Rate each counter-evidence found:

  • •MINOR: Doesn't invalidate thesis, manageable risk
  • •MODERATE: Reduces conviction, needs monitoring
  • •MAJOR: Potentially invalidates key thesis pillar
  • •CRITICAL: Fundamental flaw, thesis may be wrong

Output Format

COUNTER EVIDENCE REPORT: [SYMBOL]

THESIS PILLAR: [Growth assumption] Counter-Evidence: [What was found] Severity: [MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR/CRITICAL] Implication: [What this means for the thesis]

[Repeat for each pillar]

OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Thesis Vulnerability: [LOW/MODERATE/HIGH] Most Concerning Finding: [Single biggest issue]