AgentSkillsCN

assumption-testing

挑战投资理念背后的假设

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: assumption-testing
description: Challenge the underlying assumptions in the investment thesis
allowed-tools: get_company_overview get_company_earnings get_news_sentiment get_market_movers
metadata:
  domain: debater
  complexity: advanced

Assumption Testing Workflow

OBJECTIVE: Validate or invalidate key assumptions underlying the thesis.

Step 1: Extract Assumptions

Identify both explicit and implicit assumptions:

  • •Growth rate assumptions ("revenue will grow X%")
  • •Market assumptions ("sector will outperform")
  • •Competitive assumptions ("moat is sustainable")
  • •Valuation assumptions ("multiple will expand")
  • •Macro assumptions ("economy stays strong")

Step 2: Test Each Assumption

For each assumption:

  • •What evidence supports it?
  • •What evidence contradicts it?
  • •What would invalidate it?

Use tools:

  • •get_company_overview for current state vs assumed
  • •get_company_earnings for actual vs projected growth
  • •get_news_sentiment for competitive dynamics
  • •get_market_movers for sector trends

Step 3: Sensitivity Analysis

If assumption is wrong, what happens to thesis?

  • •Thesis still valid? (robust assumption)
  • •Thesis weakened? (sensitive assumption)
  • •Thesis invalidated? (critical assumption)

Output Format

ASSUMPTION TEST: [SYMBOL]

CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS (thesis depends on these):

  1. •Assumption: [Statement] Supporting Evidence: [Data] Contradicting Evidence: [Data] If Wrong: [Impact on thesis] Verdict: [SOLID/QUESTIONABLE/WEAK]

SENSITIVE ASSUMPTIONS (would weaken thesis if wrong): [Same format]

ROBUST ASSUMPTIONS (thesis valid even if wrong): [Same format]

WEAKEST LINK: [Most questionable critical assumption]