AgentSkillsCN

startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity

生成全面的市场机遇分析，包括 TAM/SAM/SOM

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity
description: "Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOM"
  calculations
allowed-tools: Read Write Edit Glob Grep Bash WebSearch WebFetch
risk: unknown
source: community

Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

Use this skill when

  • •Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows
  • •Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis

Do not use this skill when

  • •The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis
  • •You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

  • •Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
  • •Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
  • •Provide actionable steps and verification.
  • •If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:

  1. •Define the target market and customer segments
  2. •Gather relevant market data
  3. •Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology
  4. •Validate with top-down analysis
  5. •Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters
  6. •Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)
  7. •Present findings in a formatted report

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Context

Ask the user for essential information:

  • •Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?
  • •Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)
  • •Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)
  • •Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)
  • •Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:

  • •Bottom-up calculation frameworks
  • •Top-down validation approaches
  • •Industry-specific templates
  • •Data source recommendations

Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

For B2B/SaaS:

  1. •Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)
  2. •Estimate number of companies in each segment
  3. •Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment
  4. •Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

For Consumer/Marketplace:

  1. •Define target user demographics
  2. •Estimate total addressable users
  3. •Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)
  4. •Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

For Transactions/E-commerce:

  1. •Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)
  2. •Determine take rate or margin
  3. •Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

Step 4: Gather Market Data

Use available tools to research:

  • •WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data
  • •Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates
  • •Document assumptions clearly

Recommended data sources (from skill):

  • •Government data (Census, BLS)
  • •Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)
  • •Public company filings (10-K reports)
  • •Trade associations
  • •Academic research

Step 5: Top-Down Validation

Validate bottom-up calculation:

  1. •Find total market category size from research
  2. •Apply geographic filters
  3. •Apply segment/product filters
  4. •Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

Step 6: Calculate SAM

Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:

  • •Geographic: Regions actually serviceable
  • •Product Capability: Features needed to serve
  • •Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt
  • •Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert

Formula:

code
SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %

Step 7: Estimate SOM

Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

Conservative Approach (Recommended):

  • •Year 3: 2-3% of SAM
  • •Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

Consider:

  • •Competitive intensity
  • •Available resources (funding, team)
  • •Go-to-market effectiveness
  • •Differentiation strength

Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report

Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:

Section 1: Executive Summary

  • •Market opportunity in one paragraph
  • •TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers

Section 2: Market Definition

  • •Problem being solved
  • •Target customer profile
  • •Geographic scope
  • •Time horizon

Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis

  • •Customer segment breakdown
  • •Segment sizing with sources
  • •TAM calculation with formula
  • •Assumptions documented

Section 4: Top-Down Validation

  • •Industry category and size
  • •Filter application
  • •Validated TAM
  • •Comparison to bottom-up

Section 5: SAM Calculation

  • •Filters applied with rationale
  • •SAM formula and result
  • •Segment-level breakdown

Section 6: SOM Projection

  • •Market share assumptions
  • •Year 3 and Year 5 estimates
  • •Customer count implications
  • •Revenue projections

Section 7: Market Growth

  • •Industry growth rate (CAGR)
  • •Key growth drivers
  • •5-year market evolution

Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks

  • •Public company comparisons
  • •Customer count validation
  • •Competitive context

Section 9: Investment Thesis

  • •Market opportunity assessment
  • •Key positives and risks
  • •Venture-scale potential
  • •Next steps

Step 9: Save Report

Offer to save the report as a markdown file:

  • •Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md
  • •Use Write tool to create file
  • •Confirm file location with user

Tips for Best Results

Do:

  • •Start with bottom-up (most credible)
  • •Always triangulate with top-down
  • •Cite all data sources
  • •Document every assumption
  • •Be conservative on SOM
  • •Compare to public company benchmarks
  • •Explain any data gaps or limitations

Don't:

  • •Rely solely on top-down
  • •Cherry-pick optimistic data
  • •Claim >10% SOM without strong justification
  • •Mix methodologies inappropriately
  • •Ignore competitive context
  • •Skip validation steps

Example Usage

code
User: /market-opportunity

Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.

What product or service are you analyzing?
→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"

Who are your target customers?
→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"

What's your pricing model?
→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"

[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]

Integration with Other Commands

This command pairs well with:

  • •/financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model
  • •/business-case - Include market sizing in business case

Notes

  • •Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis
  • •Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations
  • •Update annually as market evolves
  • •Conservative estimates build credibility with investors