evidence-based-pricing

行为经济学应用于定价——附带学术引用。涵盖锚定效应、诱饵效应、魅力定价、选择过载，以及禀赋效应。在设计定价页面、优化定价层级、规划定价A/B测试，或在需要了解定价心理学背后的研究时使用此功能。

SKILL.md

--- frontmatter

name: evidence-based-pricing
description: Behavioral economics applied to pricing — with academic citations. Covers anchoring, decoy effect, charm pricing, choice overload, and endowment effect. Use when designing pricing pages, optimizing pricing tiers, planning A/B tests for pricing, or when you need the research behind pricing psychology tactics.
license: MIT
metadata:
  author: johndturner.com
  version: "1.0"

Evidence-Based Pricing

Behavioral economics applied to pricing decisions. All tactics are testable hypotheses until validated with your data.

Evidence Marking

•📚 = Peer-reviewed academic research
•💼 = Practitioner-validated (widely used, not academically tested)

Core Principles

Principle	Effect	Risk	Source
Anchoring	First price sets reference	Low	📚 Tversky & Kahneman, 1974
Decoy Effect	Inferior option makes target shine	Medium	📚 Ariely, 2008
Charm Pricing	$X99 feels cheaper than $X00	Low	📚 Thomas & Morwitz, 2005
Choice Overload	Fewer options = more conversions	Low	📚 Iyengar & Lepper, 2000
Center Stage	Middle option chosen more	Medium	📚 Valenzuela & Raghubir, 2009
Endowment Effect	Ownership increases value	Low	📚 Kahneman et al., 1990
Loss Aversion	Fear of losing > desire to gain	Low	📚 Kahneman & Tversky, 1979

Decision Framework

When Analyzing a Pricing Page

•Audit current tactics — Which principles in use?
•Identify gaps — Which low-risk tactics missing?
•Prioritize tests — Start low-risk, high-impact
•Define metrics — Conversion, plan distribution, refunds

When Designing Pricing

•2-3 options — Avoid choice paralysis
•Charm pricing — $199 not $200 (value positioning)
•Social proof — "Most Popular" on target plan
•Anchoring — Show reference price or lead with higher tier
•Test one variable — Isolate changes to measure

Testing Priority

Priority	Tactic	Why
1	Anchor text	Zero risk
2	Presentation order	Zero risk
3	Social proof badge	Low risk, proven
4	Charm pricing	Low risk
5	Strikethrough pricing	Medium risk
6	Decoy plan	Higher risk, test carefully

Common Patterns

3-Plan Structure

code

Basic $99        Pro $199 [Most Popular]     Premium $349
(limited)        (recommended)               (unlimited)

•Center Stage effect pushes to middle
•"Most Popular" adds social proof
•Premium anchors perception

Decoy Pattern

code

Basic $99         Pro $199 [Decoy]      Premium $249 [Target]
(5 users)         (10 users)            (unlimited)

Pro at $199 for only 10 users makes Premium's unlimited look like a steal.

Strikethrough Pattern

code

~~$399~~ $199

•Reserve for sales events
•Risk: Can feel gimmicky if overused
•Monitor refund rates

Anti-Patterns

Avoid	Why
Fake scarcity	Damages trust
4+ options	Decision paralysis
Hidden fees	Increases abandonment
Discount popups	Trains discount expectation
Round numbers for value products	$200 feels more than $199

Metrics to Track

•Conversion rate — Pricing page → checkout
•Plan distribution — % selecting each tier
•Refund rate — By plan (impulse vs. considered)
•AOV — Average order value
•Time on page — Confusion indicator

References

•references/experiments.md — Academic studies with citations
•references/tactics.md — Complete tactics taxonomy
•evidence-based-persuasion — For deeper research on underlying principles

Part of the Evidence-Based Marketing series.