AgentSkillsCN

consulting-hypothesis-driven-80-20

以假设驱动的方式制定工作计划，并明确贯彻 80/20 优先级法则。当快速决策需要检验假设、评估机会优先级，并聚焦于最具杠杆效应的分析时，此功能将助您事半功倍。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: consulting-hypothesis-driven-80-20
description: Build hypothesis-driven workplans with explicit 80/20 prioritization. Use when rapid decision-making requires testing assumptions, ranking opportunities, and focusing on highest-leverage analyses.

Hypothesis Driven 80/20

Use $ARGUMENTS as initial context.

When to use this skill

  • •Ambiguous problems that need fast direction before full analysis.
  • •Prioritizing limited team capacity across competing hypotheses.
  • •Designing a test plan with clear stop or continue criteria.
  • •Converting broad strategic questions into measurable experiments.

Required inputs

  • •Governing business question and target metric.
  • •Time horizon and decision deadline.
  • •Data constraints and available analysis bandwidth.

Workflow

  1. •Define one decision question and explicit success metric.
  2. •Generate 3-7 falsifiable hypotheses using strict format.
  3. •For each hypothesis define expected signal, disconfirming signal, and kill threshold.
  4. •Score hypotheses with 80/20 lens: impact, confidence, effort, speed.
  5. •Select top 1-2 hypotheses for minimum viable tests.
  6. •Build workplan with owners, deadlines, and decision checkpoints.

Ask-first questions

Ask up to 3 questions before ranking hypotheses:

  1. •Which single metric determines decision success?
  2. •What is the latest acceptable date for a go or no-go decision?
  3. •Which datasets are trusted and immediately accessible?

Assumption policy

  • •If critical data is unavailable, proceed with transparent assumptions.
  • •Annotate each assumption with confidence and validation action.
  • •Avoid merged hypotheses; keep one causal chain per hypothesis.

Output contract

Always produce these sections in order:

  1. •Context
  2. •Decision or Recommendation
  3. •Analysis
  4. •Risks
  5. •Next Actions
  6. •Assumptions

Guardrails

  • •Hypotheses must follow: "If X, then Y, because Z.".
  • •Avoid descriptive statements that cannot be disproven.
  • •Include both confirming and disconfirming signals.
  • •Stop low-value analysis once kill threshold is reached.

Resources

  • •references/hypothesis-design.md - Falsifiability rules and signal design.
  • •references/80-20-prioritization.md - Scoring and sequencing framework.
  • •templates/hypothesis-plan.md - Decision-ready hypothesis template.
  • •examples/hypothesis-example.md - Golden example with incomplete inputs.

Keywords

hypothesis driven, 80/20, falsifiable hypothesis, prioritization, test plan, consulting