AgentSkillsCN

startup-business-analyst-financial-projections

构建详尽的 3–5 年财务模型，囊括收入、成本、现金流及多种情景假设。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: startup-business-analyst-financial-projections
description: Create detailed 3-5 year financial model with revenue, costs, cash flow, and scenarios 
category: Document Processing
source: antigravity
tags: [markdown, claude, ai, workflow, template, design, document, rag, cro, marketing]
url: https://github.com/sickn33/antigravity-awesome-skills/tree/main/skills/startup-business-analyst-financial-projections

Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

Use this skill when

  • •Working on financial projections tasks or workflows
  • •Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections

Do not use this skill when

  • •The task is unrelated to financial projections
  • •You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

  • •Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
  • •Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
  • •Provide actionable steps and verification.
  • •If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

  1. •Cohort-based revenue projections
  2. •Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
  3. •Headcount planning by role
  4. •Monthly cash flow analysis
  5. •Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
  6. •Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

Business Model:

  • •Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
  • •Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
  • •Target customer segments

Starting Point:

  • •Current MRR/ARR (if any)
  • •Current customer count
  • •Current team size
  • •Current cash balance

Growth Assumptions:

  • •Expected monthly customer acquisition
  • •Customer retention/churn rate
  • •Average contract value (ACV)
  • •Sales cycle length

Cost Assumptions:

  • •Gross margin or COGS %
  • •S&M budget or CAC target
  • •Current burn rate (if applicable)

Funding:

  • •Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
  • •Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

  • •Revenue modeling approaches
  • •Cost structure templates
  • •Headcount planning guidance
  • •Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Use Cohort-Based Approach:

For each month, track:

  1. •New customers acquired
  2. •Existing customers retained (apply churn)
  3. •Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
  4. •Expansion revenue (upsells)

Formula:

code
MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

Project:

  • •Monthly detail for Year 1-2
  • •Quarterly detail for Year 3
  • •Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

  • •Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
  • •Payment processing (% of revenue)
  • •Variable customer support
  • •Third-party services

Target gross margin:

  • •SaaS: 75-85%
  • •Marketplace: 60-70%
  • •E-commerce: 40-60%

2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)

  • •Sales team compensation
  • •Marketing programs
  • •Tools and software
  • •Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

3. Research & Development (R&D)

  • •Engineering team
  • •Product management
  • •Design
  • •Target: 30-40% of revenue

4. General & Administrative (G&A)

  • •Executive team
  • •Finance, legal, HR
  • •Office and facilities
  • •Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:

  • •Roles by stage
  • •Compensation benchmarks
  • •Hiring velocity assumptions

For each role:

  • •Title and department
  • •Start date (month/quarter)
  • •Base salary
  • •Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
  • •Equity grant

Track departmental ratios:

  • •Engineering: 40-50% of team
  • •Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
  • •G&A: 10-15%
  • •Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

code
Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate

Include Funding Events:

  • •Timing of raises
  • •Amount raised
  • •Use of proceeds
  • •Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

Unit Economics:

  • •CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
  • •LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
  • •LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
  • •CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

Efficiency Metrics:

  • •Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
  • •Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
  • •Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

Cash Metrics:

  • •Monthly burn rate
  • •Runway in months
  • •Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

Conservative (P10):

  • •New customers: -30% vs. base
  • •Churn: +20% vs. base
  • •Pricing: -15% vs. base
  • •CAC: +25% vs. base

Base (P50):

  • •Most likely assumptions
  • •Primary planning scenario

Optimistic (P90):

  • •New customers: +30% vs. base
  • •Churn: -20% vs. base
  • •Pricing: +15% vs. base
  • •CAC: -25% vs. bas