AgentSkillsCN

market-sizing-analysis

当用户提出“计算总市场规模（TAM）”“确定服务市场潜力（SAM）”“估算目标市场机会（SOM）”“对市场进行规模测算”“计算市场机遇”“什么是可触达的总市场规模”等需求时，可选用此技能。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: market-sizing-analysis
description: This skill should be used when the user asks to "calculate TAM", "determine SAM", "estimate SOM", "size the market", "calculate market opportunity", "what's the total addressable market", or requests 
category: Security & Systems
source: antigravity
tags: [ai, automation, workflow, template, document, rag, cro, marketing]
url: https://github.com/sickn33/antigravity-awesome-skills/tree/main/skills/market-sizing-analysis

Market Sizing Analysis

Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.

Use this skill when

  • •Working on market sizing analysis tasks or workflows
  • •Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market sizing analysis

Do not use this skill when

  • •The task is unrelated to market sizing analysis
  • •You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

  • •Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
  • •Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
  • •Provide actionable steps and verification.
  • •If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

Overview

Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).

Core Concepts

The Three-Tier Market Framework

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • •Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
  • •Defines the universe of potential customers
  • •Used for long-term vision and market validation
  • •Example: All email marketing software revenue globally

SAM (Serviceable Available Market)

  • •Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
  • •Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
  • •Represents realistic addressable opportunity
  • •Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • •Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
  • •Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
  • •Used for financial projections and fundraising
  • •Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape

When to Use Each Methodology

Top-Down Analysis

  • •Use when established market research exists
  • •Best for mature, well-defined markets
  • •Validates market existence and growth
  • •Starts with industry reports and narrows down

Bottom-Up Analysis

  • •Use when targeting specific customer segments
  • •Best for new or niche markets
  • •Most credible for investors
  • •Builds from customer data and pricing

Value Theory

  • •Use when creating new market categories
  • •Best for disruptive innovations
  • •Estimates based on value creation
  • •Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution

Three-Methodology Framework

Methodology 1: Top-Down Analysis

Start with total market size and narrow to addressable segments.

Process:

  1. •Identify total market category from research reports
  2. •Apply geographic filters (target regions)
  3. •Apply segment filters (target industries/customers)
  4. •Calculate competitive positioning adjustments

Formula:

code
TAM = Total Market Category Size
SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Segment %
SOM = SAM × Realistic Capture Rate (2-5%)

When to use: Established markets with available research (e.g., SaaS, fintech, e-commerce)

Strengths: Quick, uses credible data, validates market existence

Limitations: May overestimate for new categories, less granular

Methodology 2: Bottom-Up Analysis

Build market size from customer segment calculations.

Process:

  1. •Define target customer segments
  2. •Estimate number of potential customers per segment
  3. •Determine average revenue per customer
  4. •Calculate realistic penetration rates

Formula:

code
TAM = Σ (Segment Size × Annual Revenue per Customer)
SAM = TAM × (Segments You Can Serve / Total Segments)
SOM = SAM × Realistic Penetration Rate (Year 3-5)

When to use: B2B, niche markets, specific customer segments

Strengths: Most credible for investors, granular, defensible

Limitations: Requires detailed customer research, time-intensive

Methodology 3: Value Theory

Calculate based on value created and willingness to pay.

Process:

  1. •Identify problem being solved
  2. •Quantify current cost of problem (time, money, inefficiency)
  3. •Calculate value of solution (savings, gains, efficiency)
  4. •Estimate willingness to pay (typically 10-30% of value)
  5. •Multiply by addressable customer base

Formula:

code
Value per Customer = Problem Cost × % Solved by Solution
Price per Customer = Value × Willingness to Pay % (10-30%)
TAM = Total Potential Customers × Price per Customer
SAM = TAM × % Meeting Buy Criteria
SOM = SAM × Realistic Adoption Rate

When to use: New categories, disruptive innovations, unclear existing markets

Strengths: Shows value creation, works for new markets

Limitations: Requires assumptions, harder to validate

Step-by-Step Process

Step 1: Define the Market

Clearly specify what market is being measured.

Questions to answer:

  • •What problem is being solved?
  • •Who are the target customers?
  • •What's the product/service category?
  • •What's the geographic scope?
  • •What's the time horizon?

Example:

  • •Proble