AgentSkillsCN

prediction-market-odds

从Polymarket和Kalshi获取预测市场赔率与价格

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: prediction-market-odds
description: Get prediction market odds and prices from Polymarket and Kalshi

Prediction Market Odds

Get current odds, prices, and market data from prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

When to Use

  • •User asks about prediction market odds
  • •User wants to know probability of an event
  • •User asks "what are the odds of [event]?"
  • •Research on market sentiment
  • •Election or event probability checks

How It Works

Uses the Dome API to aggregate prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi.

Usage

Get Polymarket Markets

bash
orth run dome /polymarket/markets -q 'status=open'
<details> <summary>curl equivalent</summary>
bash
curl -X POST "https://api.orth.sh/v1/run" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $ORTHOGONAL_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"api":"dome","path":"/polymarket/markets"}'
</details>

Search Markets

bash
orth run dome /polymarket/markets -q 'search=election' -q 'status=open'

Get Kalshi Markets

bash
orth run dome /kalshi/markets

Get Polymarket Activity

bash
orth run dome /polymarket/activity

Get Market Orders

bash
orth run dome /polymarket/orders

Get Sports Markets

bash
orth run dome /matching-markets/sports

Get Specific Sport Markets

bash
orth run dome /matching-markets/sports/nba

Supported Sports

  • •nba
  • •nfl
  • •mlb
  • •nhl
  • •soccer
  • •tennis

Response

Markets Response (/polymarket/markets, /kalshi/markets)

Returns markets array:

  • •title (string) - Market question (e.g., "Will Trump nationalize elections?")
  • •market_slug (string) - URL-friendly identifier
  • •condition_id (string) - Blockchain condition ID
  • •start_time / end_time (integer) - Unix timestamps
  • •completed_time (integer|null) - Null if still open
  • •tags (array) - Category tags (e.g., ["politics", "us election"])
  • •volume_1_week / volume_1_month / volume_1_year / volume_total (number) - Trading volume in USD
  • •side_a / side_b (object) - id and label (typically "Yes"/"No")
  • •winning_side (object|null) - Null if unresolved
  • •image (string) - Market thumbnail URL

Activity Response (/polymarket/activity)

Returns activities array:

  • •title (string) - Market title
  • •market_slug (string) - Market identifier
  • •side (string) - Trade side: BUY, SELL, or MERGE
  • •shares (integer) - Raw share amount
  • •shares_normalized (number) - Human-readable share amount
  • •price (number) - Trade price (0-1, represents probability)
  • •timestamp (integer) - Unix timestamp of the trade
  • •user (string) - Wallet address of the trader
  • •tx_hash (string) - Blockchain transaction hash

Examples

User: "What are the odds on Polymarket right now?"

bash
orth run dome /polymarket/markets -q 'status=open'

User: "Show me Kalshi prediction markets"

bash
orth run dome /kalshi/markets

User: "What's happening in prediction markets?"

bash
orth run dome /polymarket/activity

User: "Any sports betting markets?"

bash
orth run dome /matching-markets/sports

Understanding Odds

  • •Prices are shown as decimals (0.65 = 65% probability)
  • •"Yes" price = probability market thinks event will happen
  • •Higher volume = more confidence/liquidity
  • •Prices change based on trading activity

Error Handling

  • •400 - search requires status parameter (open or closed) — always include both
  • •401 - Invalid API key
  • •429 - Rate limit — wait and retry
  • •Empty markets array means no markets match the search term
  • •Activity endpoint returns recent trades globally — no filters required

Tips

  • •Check multiple markets for the same event
  • •Volume indicates market confidence
  • •Recent activity shows sentiment shifts
  • •Polymarket focuses on politics/world events, Kalshi on finance/weather