Pre-Mortems with Kill Criteria
Overview
An enhancement to the standard pre-mortem that moves beyond simply imagining failure to establishing pre-committed actions based on specific negative signals.
Core principle: Thinking about failure isn't enough; you must commit to actions BEFORE you see the signals.
The Process
code
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ 1. MENTAL TIME TRAVEL │ │ Fast forward: Imagine the project has FAILED │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 2. SIGNAL IDENTIFICATION │ │ "What early clues indicated the failure?" │ │ List specific, observable signals │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 3. DEFINE KILL CRITERIA │ │ Convert clues into measurable thresholds │ │ Example: "CPA > $50" or "Customer won't demo" │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 4. PRE-COMMITMENT │ │ Establish rule: "If [Criteria] occurs, we [Kill/Pivot]" │ │ Write it down and share with team │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 5. ACTIVE MONITORING │ │ Scan for criteria during execution │ │ Act immediately when triggered │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Key Principles
| Principle | Description |
|---|---|
| Pre-commit | Lock in actions before rationalization kicks in |
| Signal focus | Identify correlates of failure, not just the failure itself |
| Prospective waste | Think about future waste, not sunk cost |
| Automatic triggers | When criteria hit, action is mandatory |
Common Mistakes
- •Doing a pre-mortem but not changing the plan
- •Identifying risks without setting a specific stop trigger
- •Rationalizing signals when they appear ("it's different this time")
Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital, WSOP Champion) via Lenny's Podcast