The Historian Decision-Making Model
Overview
A process for improving decision quality by excavating and analyzing organization history to understand the context of past failures before charting a new path.
Core principle: Learn from mistakes you didn't personally live through.
The Process
code
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ 1. EXCAVATE │ │ Research past decisions and outcomes │ │ Talk to long-tenured employees │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 2. CONTEXTUALIZE │ │ Analyze "Why" decisions were made at that time │ │ What was the environment/constraints? │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 3. IDENTIFY BAGGAGE │ │ Map internal resistance and emotional blockers │ │ "We tried that before" = baggage signal │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 4. FORMULATE HYPOTHESIS │ │ Create strategy informed by historical context │ │ Address what was different then vs. now │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ 5. DECIDE & ITERATE │ │ Commit to direction without needing 100% certainty │ │ Learn from results │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Key Principles
| Principle | Description |
|---|---|
| Excavate actively | Don't assume you know the past |
| Context matters | Same idea can fail or succeed based on timing |
| Baggage is real | Emotional weight blocks rational evaluation |
| Commit anyway | History informs but doesn't dictate |
Common Mistakes
- •Ignoring "baggage" associated with old ideas
- •Making decisions without understanding historical context
- •Assuming "we tried that" means it can never work
Source: Anneka Gupta (Rubrik CPO) via Lenny's Podcast