MonteCarlo
Monte Carlo simulation engine for Finance Guru's 4-layer dividend income + margin living strategy. Runs 10,000 market scenarios to project income probabilities, margin safety, and portfolio outcomes over 28 months.
Workflow Routing
| Workflow | Trigger | File |
|---|---|---|
| RunSimulation | "run monte carlo", "simulate portfolio", "stress test" | workflows/RunSimulation.md |
| IncorporateBuyTicket | "include buy ticket", "add ticket to simulation" | workflows/IncorporateBuyTicket.md |
Examples
Example 1: Run standard Monte Carlo simulation
code
User: "Run the monte carlo simulation with current portfolio" -> Invokes RunSimulation workflow -> Auto-detects portfolio values from notebooks/updates/Portfolio_Positions_*.csv -> Runs 10,000 scenarios with v3.0 4-layer model -> Outputs JSON summary + full CSV + Excel to fin-guru-private/fin-guru/analysis/
Example 2: Incorporate a buy ticket into simulation
code
User: "Run monte carlo with my new buy ticket from 12-31" -> Invokes IncorporateBuyTicket workflow -> Reads buy ticket from fin-guru-private/fin-guru/tickets/buy-ticket-2025-12-31-*.md -> Adjusts starting portfolio values based on ticket allocations -> Runs simulation with updated positions
Example 3: Stress test margin safety
code
User: "What's my margin call probability?" -> Invokes RunSimulation workflow -> Focuses on margin_call_rate and margin_ratio metrics -> Reports 5th percentile (worst case) margin ratio
Key Metrics Produced
Success Metrics
- •P($100k income) - Probability of reaching $100k annual dividend income
- •P($75k income) - Probability of reaching $75k annual dividend income
- •P($50k income) - Probability of reaching $50k annual dividend income
- •Margin call rate - % of scenarios triggering margin call (<3:1 ratio)
- •Backstop usage rate - % of scenarios requiring business income injection
Portfolio Metrics
- •Total portfolio value - Median, P5, P95 at month 28
- •Layer 1 (Growth) - PLTR, TSLA, VOO, etc. (no new deployment)
- •Layer 2 (Income) - Dividend funds ($11,517/month deployment)
- •Layer 3 (Hedge) - SQQQ ($800/month deployment)
- •GOOGL position - Scale-in ($1,000/month deployment)
Risk Metrics
- •Margin ratio - Portfolio / Margin debt (must stay >3:1)
- •Max drawdown - Worst peak-to-trough decline
- •Break-even timing - When dividends cover margin draws
Output Files
All outputs saved to fin-guru-private/fin-guru/analysis/:
- •
monte-carlo-v3-{date}.json- Summary statistics - •
monte-carlo-v3-full-results-{date}.csv- All 10,000 scenarios - •
monte-carlo-v3-analysis-{date}.xlsx- Excel workbook with charts
Configuration
Simulation parameters are set in fin-guru-private/strategies/dividend_margin_monte_carlo.py:
- •Starting portfolio values (auto-detected or manual)
- •Monthly deployment amounts
- •Bucket allocations and yields
- •Margin schedule
- •Market regime probabilities
Model Version
v3.0 (Jan 2026) - Full 4-layer portfolio:
- •Layer 1: Growth portfolio (market returns only, no new deployment)
- •Layer 2: Income portfolio (5-bucket dividend allocation)
- •Layer 3: Hedge (SQQQ for crisis protection)
- •GOOGL: Scale-in position (diverted from Layer 2)
Fixes applied:
- •Floor at $0 for all positions (stocks can't go negative)
- •Full portfolio margin ratio (all layers count toward Fidelity margin)
- •Correct starting values from Fidelity CSV