Decision Architecture
When This Skill Activates
Claude uses this skill when:
- •Facing difficult product decisions
- •Choosing between multiple options
- •Reducing decision paralysis
- •Evaluating tradeoffs
Core Frameworks
1. Expected Value Thinking (Source: Annie Duke)
The Formula:
code
Expected Value = (Probability of Success × Value if Successful)
- (Probability of Failure × Cost if Fails)
Example:
markdown
Decision: Build feature A or B? Feature A: - 70% chance of +$100K revenue = $70K - 30% chance of -$20K cost = -$6K - Expected value: +$64K Feature B: - 30% chance of +$500K revenue = $150K - 70% chance of -$50K cost = -$35K - Expected value: +$115K Choose B (higher EV despite lower probability)
2. Regret Minimization (Source: Jeff Bezos)
The Question:
"When I'm 80 years old, will I regret not trying this?"
Framework:
- •Imagine yourself in the future
- •Work backwards
- •Minimize long-term regret
Action Templates
Template: Decision Matrix
markdown
# Decision: [Choice A vs Choice B] ## Expected Value ### Option A - Success probability: [X]% - Success value: [$Y] - Failure probability: [Z]% - Failure cost: [$W] - **Expected value:** [$EV] ### Option B - Success probability: [X]% - Success value: [$Y] - Failure probability: [Z]% - Failure cost: [$W] - **Expected value:** [$EV] ## Regret Minimization - If I choose A, will I regret not trying B? - If I choose B, will I regret not trying A? ## Reversibility - Can we reverse this? [Yes/No] - Cost to reverse: [Low/Medium/High] ## Decision: [Option] because [reasoning]
Quick Reference
🎲 Decision Checklist
Analysis:
- • Expected value calculated
- • Regret minimization applied
- • Reversibility assessed
- • Pre-mortem completed
Decision:
- • Choice made
- • Reasoning documented
- • Success criteria defined
Key Quotes
Annie Duke:
"Life is poker, not chess. We're making decisions with incomplete information."
Jeff Bezos:
"Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had."