AgentSkillsCN

24-months-skills

丹·科伊提出的AI时代转型指南，以及未来24个月中至关重要的技能矩阵。 触发条件： - 当用户询问“应该学习哪些技能？”时； - 当用户担忧AI会取代人类工作时； - 当用户思考如何为职业发展做好长期规划时； - 当用户希望深入了解AI带来的变革时； - 当用户觉得自己在技术前沿稍显滞后时； - 当用户寻求适应变化的策略时。 核心能力： - 深入解析每一次技术变革中的三大关键要素； - 引导用户掌握“解放艺术”的核心框架； - 展示技能如何不断向上抽象、升级； - 提供切实可行的学习优先级建议； - 帮助用户成长为“好奇者”型人才。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: 24-months-skills
description: |
  Dan Koe's framework for navigating the AI shift and skills that matter in the next 24 months.

  TRIGGERS:
  - When user asks what skills to learn
  - When user worried about AI taking jobs
  - When user asks about future-proofing career
  - When user wants to understand the AI shift
  - When user feels behind on technology
  - When user asks about adapting to change

  CAPABILITIES:
  - Explain the 3 types in every technological shift
  - Guide through the "liberating arts" framework
  - Show how skills abstract upward
  - Provide actionable learning priorities
  - Help user become "the curious" type

You Have About 24 Months to Learn These Skills

From Dan Koe's article "You have about 24 months to learn these skills"

The Shift

Something changed recently. The tools got better. People became angrier. People who found useful AI applications started pulling ahead (visibly).

The pattern is clear if you study history. But the timescale is compressed.

Printing press: Decades to spread across Europe Industrial Revolution: Unfolded over a century AI: Moving faster than all of them

The penalty for starting late is exponential, not linear. The person experimenting today will be unrecognizable in 2 years. The person who waits will find the entry-level gone.

The 3 Types in Every Shift

Every technological/cultural shift reveals three types of people:

1. The Resisters

  • •Attach identity to the way things were done
  • •See new tools as threat to sense of self
  • •Artists screaming that AI users are "bad people"
  • •Writers saying good writing can't be replaced
  • •Creatives rage-posting while refusing to learn

If you can, avoid these people. If you are one, keep an open mind.

2. The Waiters

  • •See change happening
  • •Tell themselves it will "blow over"
  • •Dependent on others for job, direction, survival
  • •Don't know another way

The problem: The gap is exponential. You can't wait a few years and catch up like before. People experimenting today are compounding monthly.

3. The Curious

  • •Stay curious, experiment, build
  • •Figure out how to adopt in their own way
  • •Don't romanticize the past or fear the future
  • •Understand new things have a time lag before becoming useful
  • •Know it takes trial and error to make it work for them

This is the goal. Always be the curious one.

The Pattern of History

People act like technological disruption is new. It's not.

Printing press: Scribes spent years mastering manuscript copying. A single press produced 3,600 pages per workday. Scribes who refused to adapt disappeared. Those who learned the machines thrived.

Industrial Revolution: Hand-weavers protested, some smashed machines. Mechanized spinning increased output 500x. New jobs emerged: printers, typesetters, operators, engineers.

The pattern: Skills abstract upward.

  • •Scribe → Editor
  • •Hand-weaver → Machine operator
  • •Typesetter → Designer

Humans become "universal explainers" at a higher level. The tools change. The capacity to wield them does not.

Skills Abstracting Up

Dan's personal example with writing:

"I said I'd never use AI to write. Writing is my craft, how I think."

What changed: Found a process where AI handles labor while he controls thinking.

His process:

  1. •Start with outline of points and ideas (extensive, practically writes the piece)
  2. •Feed books and past content for context (AI understands his worldview)
  3. •Flesh out ideas while AI researches alongside
  4. •AI surfaces patterns and information that would take hours to find
  5. •Comb through drafts, make cuts, redirect, push harder where alive
  6. •Add "commentary" on places lacking depth

"The words are still mine. But my job changed. And I'm writing more than ever."

The parallel:

  • •Scribe copied letters → Printing press → Editor decides what's worth printing
  • •Writing words manually → AI assistance → Directing what ideas are worth expressing

The craft remains. The skill abstracts upward into:

  • •Originality of thought
  • •Voice that's unmistakably yours
  • •Making someone see something new
  • •Taste

What Actually Matters

No skill is going to save you.

What will: The ability to learn any skill fast.

Devon Eriksen's "liberating arts" - skills free people need:

SkillWhat It Is
LogicDeriving truth from known facts
StatisticsUnderstanding implications of data
RhetoricPersuading, and spotting persuasion tactics
ResearchGathering information on unknown subjects
PsychologyDiscerning true motives of yourself and others
InvestmentManaging and growing assets
AgencyDeciding what to pursue and acting without permission

These aren't skills learned from books. They're capacities developed by doing things that demand them.

The 3 Things That Demand Everything

Three activities that force development of all liberating arts:

1. Build Your Own Thing and Put It in Front of People

A product, project, or work with your name on it.

Forces:

  • •Rhetoric: Must persuade people to care
  • •Psychology: Must understand what others actually want
  • •Agency: Must act without permission

You learn by getting feedback from reality, not from books.

2. Write Publicly, Consistently

Writing is compressed thinking.

Forces:

  • •Logic: Weak arguments collapse on the page
  • •Research: Can't fake depth

Also:

  • •Exposes where ideas are thin
  • •Builds compounding asset (audience, reputation, proof of work)

Even with AI, there will be skilled and unskilled writers. The distinction lies in:

  • •Density of ideas
  • •Quality of argument
  • •Synthesis of concepts
  • •Novelty of perspective

Not the labor of putting words on paper.

3. Use AI to Do Things You Couldn't Do Before

Not just things you didn't want to do.

Most people use AI to avoid work. The edge goes to people using AI for previously impossible work:

  • •Research that would take weeks
  • •Synthesis across dozens of sources

The question: "What can I do now that I couldn't before?" > "How do I do less?"

The Three Questions

After reading this, question:

  1. •Every skill you have
  2. •Every habit you repeat without thought
  3. •Every default way you spend time

The test: If you do the same things every day for the rest of your life, does that lead to a future you want?

Are you on the cutting edge, or settling for average?

The Path Forward

There is something you can do that won't be entirely replaced.

Some combination of:

  • •Your taste
  • •Your judgment
  • •Your way of seeing problems

Your job: Find that thing.

You won't find it by waiting or resisting.

You find it by:

  • •Experimenting at the edge of what you know
  • •Discovering what your edge actually is

The Timeline

The people who figure this out in the next 12-36 months will be seen as a different species.

Exponential progress rewards those who lean into risk and figure it out along the way.

Key Quotes

"No skill is going to save you. The ability to learn any skill fast, however, will."

"The gap is exponential. You can't wait a few years and catch up."

"The question isn't 'how do I do less?' It's 'what can I do now that I couldn't before?'"

"Skills abstract upward. The craft remains."

Action Items

  1. •Identify which type you are (Resister, Waiter, Curious)
  2. •If not Curious, examine what's holding you back
  3. •Start experimenting with AI in your domain
  4. •Build something with your name on it
  5. •Write publicly about what you're learning
  6. •Ask: "What can I now do that was impossible before?"