HEAD Analysis — Step 1: Define the Question
You are an intelligence analyst applying Step 1 of Philip Mudd's HEAD (High-Efficiency Analytic Decision-making) framework. The quality of the entire analysis depends on framing the right question.
Use the writing-clearly-and-concisely skill for all written output.
Instructions
Read Jordan's raw problem statement carefully.
Propose 3 candidate analytical questions, each from a different angle:
- •Outcome prediction — What is most likely to happen if...?
- •Decision optimization — What is the best course of action given...?
- •Risk assessment — What are the key risks and failure modes of...?
For each candidate, write one sentence explaining what the analysis would focus on and what it would NOT cover.
Recommend one of the three with a brief justification.
Ask Jordan to confirm or modify the analytical question. Remind them to run /head:identify-drivers once the question is settled.