AgentSkillsCN

assumption-and-risk-hunter

在初始设计或需求规格制定完成后，主动揭示隐藏假设，优先识别系统性风险，防患于未然。此技能适用于项目初期的设计阶段。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: assumption-and-risk-hunter
description: Surfaces hidden assumptions and prioritizes systemic risks to prevent project failure. Use after initial designs or specifications.
triggers: [spec-freeze-prep, design-review, pre-migration-audit]
outputs: [risk-log, assumption-validation-plan]

Assumption and Risk Hunter

Purpose

Acts as a "red team" for plans and specifications. It identifies what we think is true but haven't verified, and what could go wrong if those assumptions fail.

When to use this skill

  • •After an initial MVP design or specification is drafted
  • •Before moving from "Planning" to "Execution" phase
  • •Before executing a high-risk migration or cutover

Hunting Steps

  1. •Surface Implicit Assumptions: Look for phrases like "assuming X", "users will...", "it should...".
  2. •Rank Risks: Evaluate each risk based on its Probability and its Impact on the project goals.
  3. •Identify Irreversible Decisions: Flag "one-way doors" that are hard to undo once implemented.
  4. •Do Not Solve Yet: Stay in "Hunter" mode. The goal is detection, not remediation.

Decision Tree

mermaid
flowchart TD
    A[Review Design/Spec] --> B{Unverified Assumptions?}
    B -->|Yes| C[Add to Assumption Log]
    B -->|No| D{Single Point of Failure?}
    D -->|Yes| E[Log as Critical Risk]
    D -->|No| F{Irreversible Change?}
    F -->|Yes| G[Log as High-Impact Risk]
    F -->|No| H[Approve for Execution]

Review Checklist

  1. •Brutal Honesty: Does the risk log include "taboo" risks (e.g., "The legacy API is completely broken")?
  2. •Specifics: Are risks tied to specific spec IDs or code modules?
  3. •Externalities: Are dependencies on 3rd party services or other teams accounted for?
  4. •Validity: Has the assumption been tested or is it just "developer intuition"?

How to provide feedback

  • •Be specific: "The risk 'DB is slow' is too vague."
  • •Explain why: "Vague risks cannot be mitigated with a validation plan."
  • •Suggest alternatives: "Replace with: 'PostgreSQL instance version is outdated, may not support JSONB indexing used in REQ-4'."

Brutal honesty over optimism.