Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

1. •Cohort-based revenue projections
2. •Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)
3. •Headcount planning by role
4. •Monthly cash flow analysis
5. •Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)
6. •Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

Business Model:

• •Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
• •Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
• •Target customer segments

Starting Point:

• •Current MRR/ARR (if any)
• •Current customer count
• •Current team size
• •Current cash balance

Growth Assumptions:

• •Expected monthly customer acquisition
• •Customer retention/churn rate
• •Average contract value (ACV)
• •Sales cycle length

Cost Assumptions:

• •Gross margin or COGS %
• •S&M budget or CAC target
• •Current burn rate (if applicable)

Funding:

• •Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
• •Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

• •Revenue modeling approaches
• •Cost structure templates
• •Headcount planning guidance
• •Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Use Cohort-Based Approach:

For each month, track:

1. •New customers acquired
2. •Existing customers retained (apply churn)
3. •Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)
4. •Expansion revenue (upsells)

Formula:

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

Project:

• •Monthly detail for Year 1-2
• •Quarterly detail for Year 3
• •Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

• •Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
• •Payment processing (% of revenue)
• •Variable customer support
• •Third-party services

Target gross margin:

• •SaaS: 75-85%
• •Marketplace: 60-70%
• •E-commerce: 40-60%

2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)

• •Sales team compensation
• •Marketing programs
• •Tools and software
• •Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

3. Research & Development (R&D)

• •Engineering team
• •Product management
• •Design
• •Target: 30-40% of revenue

4. General & Administrative (G&A)

• •Executive team
• •Finance, legal, HR
• •Office and facilities
• •Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:

• •Roles by stage
• •Compensation benchmarks
• •Hiring velocity assumptions

For each role:

• •Title and department
• •Start date (month/quarter)
• •Base salary
• •Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
• •Equity grant

Track departmental ratios:

• •Engineering: 40-50% of team
• •Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
• •G&A: 10-15%
• •Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate

Include Funding Events:

• •Timing of raises
• •Amount raised
• •Use of proceeds
• •Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

Unit Economics:

• •CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
• •LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
• •LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
• •CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

Efficiency Metrics:

• •Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
• •Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
• •Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

Cash Metrics:

• •Monthly burn rate
• •Runway in months
• •Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

Conservative (P10):

• •New customers: -30% vs. base
• •Churn: +20% vs. base
• •Pricing: -15% vs. base
• •CAC: +25% vs. base

Base (P50):

• •Most likely assumptions
• •Primary planning scenario

Optimistic (P90):

• •New customers: +30% vs. base
• •Churn: -20% vs. base
• •Pricing: +15% vs. base
• •CAC: -25% vs. base

Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report

Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:

Section 1: Executive Summary

• •3-5 year financial snapshot
• •Key metrics at scale
• •Funding requirements

Section 2: Model Assumptions

• •Revenue model and pricing
• •Growth assumptions
• •Cost structure assumptions
• •Headcount plan summary

Section 3: Revenue Projections Monthly/quarterly tables showing:

| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|

Section 4: Cost Breakdown

| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |

Section 5: Headcount Plan

| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |

Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis

| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|

Section 7: Key Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |

Section 8: Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |

Section 9: Funding Requirements

• •Amount needed
• •Use of proceeds breakdown
• •Milestones to achieve
• •Expected valuation impact

Section 10: Validation

• •Sanity checks performed
• •Benchmark comparisons
• •Risk factors
• •Assumptions to monitor

Step 10: Save Model

Offer to save as markdown file:

• •Suggest filename: financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md
• •Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets
• •Provide formulas for key calculations

Financial Model Best Practices

Do:

• •Use cohort-based revenue model
• •Include 3 scenarios
• •Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)
• •Calculate key metrics
• •Validate against benchmarks
• •Document all assumptions
• •Show cash flow and runway
• •Include fundraising milestones

Don't:

• •Be overly optimistic on growth
• •Underestimate costs
• •Forget fully-loaded compensation
• •Ignore cash timing
• •Skip scenario analysis
• •Use static headcount
• •Forget to validate

Integration with Other Commands

Pairs well with:

• •/market-opportunity - Use SOM for revenue ceiling
• •/business-case - Include projections in business case

Example Usage

User: /financial-projections

Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.

What's your business model?
→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"

Current state?
→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"

Growth assumptions?
→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV"

[Claude builds complete model with all sections]

Notes

• •Model building takes 45-90 minutes
• •Results in comprehensive planning tool
• •Update monthly to track vs. actuals
• •Share with investors and board
• •Use for fundraising decks
• •Basis for budget and hiring decisions