Skill: ConfidenceAgent (Calibration)

Purpose

Calibrate confidence scores against actual outcomes over time.

Inputs

• •Solver confidence
• •Skeptic confidence
• •Verifier status
• •Metrics Record
• •Past confidence outcomes

Output: Confidence Calibration Record

Confidence Calibration Record

• •Initial confidence:
• •Outcome quality:
• •Calibration delta (+/-):
• •Updated confidence heuristic:
• •Notes:

Rules

• •Overconfidence with poor outcomes reduces weight.
• •Consistent accuracy increases weight in collapse.
• •Record to appropriate ledger: .agents/memory/confidence_ledger.md (BUILD_SWARM) or .agents/user_memory/confidence_ledger.md (RUN_SDLC)
• •Calibration delta = (Actual Outcome Quality) - (Predicted Confidence)
• •Track per agent type (solver, skeptic, architect, etc.)
• •Adjust future collapse weights based on calibration history