Market Analysis

Systematic market analysis to understand size, segmentation, trends, and opportunities.

Purpose

Market analysis provides the foundation for ALL subsequent PMM activities:

•Positioning requires understanding market context
•Messaging requires understanding customer segments
•GTM requires understanding market dynamics
•Pricing requires understanding market expectations

HARD GATE: Do NOT proceed to positioning or messaging without market analysis.

Process

Phase 1: Market Definition

Define the market boundaries:

markdown

## Market Definition

**Product/Feature:** [What you're analyzing]
**Market Category:** [Existing category or new category creation]
**Geographic Scope:** [Global, regional, specific countries]
**Time Horizon:** [Current, 1-3 years, 5+ years]

### Market Boundaries
- **Included:** [What's in scope]
- **Excluded:** [What's explicitly out of scope]
- **Adjacent Markets:** [Related but distinct markets]

Phase 2: Market Sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM)

Quantify the market opportunity:

markdown

## Market Sizing

### Total Addressable Market (TAM)
**Definition:** Total market demand if 100% market share
**Size:** $X billion
**Calculation Method:** [Top-down/Bottom-up/Value theory]
**Sources:** [List data sources]

### Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)
**Definition:** Portion of TAM you can actually serve
**Size:** $X million
**Limiting Factors:**
- Geographic: [Regions you can serve]
- Technical: [Segments your product can address]
- Go-to-market: [Segments you can reach]

### Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)
**Definition:** Realistic market share in 1-3 years
**Size:** $X million
**Assumptions:**
- Market share: X%
- Growth rate: X%
- Competitive dynamics: [Key assumptions]

Phase 3: Market Segmentation

Identify distinct market segments:

markdown

## Market Segmentation

### Segment 1: [Name]
**Size:** $X million (X% of SAM)
**Characteristics:**
- Company size: [Range]
- Industry: [Verticals]
- Pain points: [Top 3 pain points]
- Buying behavior: [How they buy]
**Attractiveness:** HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW
**Fit Score:** X/10
**Priority:** PRIMARY/SECONDARY/TERTIARY

### Segment 2: [Name]
[Repeat structure]

Phase 4: Market Trends

Analyze market dynamics:

markdown

## Market Trends

### Growth Drivers
| Driver | Impact | Timeline | Confidence |
|--------|--------|----------|------------|
| [Trend 1] | HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW | Near/Mid/Long | HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW |
| [Trend 2] | ... | ... | ... |

### Headwinds
| Challenge | Impact | Mitigation |
|-----------|--------|------------|
| [Challenge 1] | HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW | [How to address] |
| [Challenge 2] | ... | ... |

### Technology Trends
- [Emerging tech affecting market]
- [Adoption curves]
- [Disruption potential]

### Regulatory Trends
- [Current regulations]
- [Expected changes]
- [Compliance requirements]

Phase 5: Customer Analysis

Understand the target customer:

markdown

## Customer Analysis

### Ideal Customer Profile (ICP)
**Company Characteristics:**
- Size: [Employee count, revenue]
- Industry: [Verticals]
- Geography: [Regions]
- Tech stack: [Required technologies]
- Maturity: [Growth stage]

**Behavioral Indicators:**
- [Signal that indicates fit]
- [Signal that indicates readiness to buy]

### Buyer Personas
**Primary Buyer: [Title]**
- Role: [Responsibilities]
- Goals: [What they want to achieve]
- Pain points: [What keeps them up at night]
- Success metrics: [How they're measured]
- Objections: [Common concerns]

**Economic Buyer: [Title]**
[Repeat structure]

**Technical Evaluator: [Title]**
[Repeat structure]

Output Format

markdown

# Market Analysis: [Product/Feature]

## Executive Summary
- **Market Size:** $X SAM, $X SOM
- **Growth Rate:** X% CAGR
- **Key Segments:** [Top 3 segments]
- **Primary Opportunity:** [One sentence]
- **Key Risk:** [One sentence]

## Market Definition
[Phase 1 output]

## Market Sizing
[Phase 2 output]

## Segmentation
[Phase 3 output]

## Trends
[Phase 4 output]

## Customer Analysis
[Phase 5 output]

## Recommendations
1. **Target Segment:** [Primary segment to pursue]
2. **Positioning Implications:** [What this means for positioning]
3. **GTM Implications:** [What this means for go-to-market]
4. **Risks to Monitor:** [Key uncertainties]

## Sources
- [Source 1]
- [Source 2]

Blocker Criteria

Blocker	Action
No TAM data available	STOP. Define methodology and assumptions. Request validation.
Market definition unclear	STOP. Clarify boundaries before sizing.
Conflicting market data	STOP. Document sources. Recommend reconciliation approach.
No ICP definition	STOP. Cannot proceed without target customer clarity.

Anti-Rationalization Table

See shared-patterns/anti-rationalization.md for universal anti-rationalizations.

Gate-Specific Anti-Rationalizations

Rationalization	Why It's WRONG	Required Action
"TAM is just a big number game"	TAM informs investment decisions and positioning scope	Calculate with methodology and sources
"Segmentation is obvious"	Obvious segments miss nuanced opportunities	Analyze systematically
"User knows their market"	User knowledge + analysis > either alone	Augment with structured research
"Market data is stale"	Stale data + analysis > no data	Document recency, proceed with caveats

Pressure Resistance

See shared-patterns/pressure-resistance.md for universal pressure scenarios.

Gate-Specific Pressures

Pressure Type	Request	Agent Response
"Skip to positioning"	"We know the market, just position"	"Positioning without market analysis is guessing. Completing market analysis."
"Use competitor's TAM"	"Just use what [competitor] published"	"Competitor TAM serves their narrative. Calculating independent estimate."
"Rough estimate is fine"	"Just ballpark it"	"Ballpark estimates cause bad decisions. Providing methodology-backed estimate."

Execution Report

Base metrics per shared-patterns/execution-report.md:

Metric	Value
Duration	Xm Ys
Iterations	N
Result	PASS/FAIL/PARTIAL

Gate-Specific Details

•markets_defined: N
•tam_calculated: YES/NO
•segments_identified: N
•sources_referenced: N
•confidence_level: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW