SKILL.md

--- frontmatter

name: ops-capacity-planning
description: |
  Structured workflow for infrastructure capacity planning including growth
  forecasting, scaling strategy, and resource provisioning decisions.

trigger: |
  - Quarterly capacity reviews
  - Pre-launch capacity assessment
  - Performance degradation investigation
  - Budget planning for infrastructure

skip_when: |
  - Application performance optimization -> use ring-dev-team specialists
  - Cost-only analysis -> use ops-cost-optimization skill
  - One-time resource adjustment -> standard change management

related:
  similar: [ops-cost-optimization]
  uses: [infrastructure-architect, cloud-cost-optimizer]

Capacity Planning Workflow

This skill defines the structured process for infrastructure capacity planning. Use it for proactive capacity management and growth forecasting.

Capacity Planning Phases

Phase	Focus	Output
1. Current State	Document existing capacity	Capacity baseline
2. Usage Analysis	Analyze utilization patterns	Utilization report
3. Growth Forecast	Project future requirements	Growth model
4. Gap Analysis	Identify capacity gaps	Gap report
5. Recommendations	Scaling strategy	Capacity plan
6. Implementation	Execute capacity changes	Updated infrastructure

Phase 1: Current State Assessment

Data Collection

Gather the following for each service tier:

Metric	Compute	Database	Storage	Network
Provisioned	Instance count/size	Instance class	Total GB	Bandwidth
Peak utilization	CPU/Memory %	Connections/IOPS	Usage %	Throughput
Average utilization	CPU/Memory %	Connections/IOPS	Growth rate	Latency
Cost	Monthly $	Monthly $	Monthly $	Monthly $

Data Sources

bash

# AWS CLI examples
aws cloudwatch get-metric-statistics --namespace AWS/EC2 --metric-name CPUUtilization
aws rds describe-db-instances
aws s3api list-buckets
aws ce get-cost-and-usage

Current State Template

markdown

## Current Capacity Baseline

**Assessment Date:** YYYY-MM-DD
**Scope:** [production/staging/all]

### Compute Resources

| Service | Instance Type | Count | Avg CPU | Avg Memory | Cost/Month |
|---------|--------------|-------|---------|------------|------------|
| api | m5.xlarge | 10 | 45% | 60% | $2,400 |
| worker | c5.2xlarge | 5 | 70% | 40% | $1,800 |

### Database Resources

| Database | Instance Class | Storage | Avg Connections | Avg IOPS | Cost/Month |
|----------|---------------|---------|-----------------|----------|------------|
| primary | db.r5.2xlarge | 500GB | 150 | 5000 | $1,800 |

### Storage Resources

| Bucket/Volume | Type | Size | Growth Rate | Cost/Month |
|---------------|------|------|-------------|------------|
| logs | S3 Standard | 2TB | 100GB/month | $46 |

Phase 2: Usage Analysis

Utilization Patterns

Identify patterns in resource usage:

Pattern	Description	Scaling Strategy
Steady	Consistent load	Reserved capacity
Cyclical	Predictable peaks	Scheduled scaling
Spiky	Unpredictable bursts	Auto-scaling
Growing	Steady increase	Proactive provisioning

Analysis Questions

•What is peak vs average utilization?
•When do peaks occur? (time of day, day of week)
•What triggers traffic spikes? (campaigns, events)
•What is the headroom at peak? (safety margin)
•Are there correlated resources? (if A scales, B must scale)

Utilization Thresholds

Metric	Healthy	Warning	Critical
CPU	<70%	70-85%	>85%
Memory	<75%	75-90%	>90%
Storage	<70%	70-85%	>85%
DB Connections	<70%	70-85%	>85%

Phase 3: Growth Forecasting

Forecasting Methods

Method	Best For	Accuracy
Linear extrapolation	Steady growth	Moderate
Seasonal decomposition	Cyclical patterns	High
Business-driven	New product launches	Varies
Historical comparison	Similar past events	Moderate

Growth Forecast Template

markdown

## Growth Forecast

**Forecast Period:** [Q1 2024 / 6 months / etc.]
**Methodology:** [method used]
**Confidence:** [High/Medium/Low]

### Traffic Projections

| Metric | Current | +3 Months | +6 Months | +12 Months |
|--------|---------|-----------|-----------|------------|
| Requests/sec | 1,000 | 1,200 | 1,500 | 2,000 |
| DAU | 50,000 | 60,000 | 75,000 | 100,000 |
| Data volume | 500GB | 600GB | 750GB | 1TB |

### Key Assumptions

1. [Assumption 1 - e.g., no major product launches]
2. [Assumption 2 - e.g., 20% YoY growth continues]
3. [Assumption 3 - e.g., no seasonal events]

### Risk Factors

| Factor | Impact | Likelihood | Mitigation |
|--------|--------|------------|------------|
| Viral growth | +200% traffic | Low | Auto-scaling limits |
| Marketing campaign | +50% traffic | Medium | Pre-scale before launch |

Phase 4: Gap Analysis

Capacity Gap Identification

Compare current capacity against forecast requirements:

markdown

## Gap Analysis

### Compute Gaps

| Service | Current Capacity | Needed (+6mo) | Gap | Severity |
|---------|------------------|---------------|-----|----------|
| api | 10 x m5.xlarge | 15 x m5.xlarge | +5 | Medium |
| worker | 5 x c5.2xlarge | 8 x c5.2xlarge | +3 | High |

### Database Gaps

| Database | Current | Needed | Gap | Notes |
|----------|---------|--------|-----|-------|
| primary | db.r5.2xlarge | db.r5.4xlarge | Upgrade | Vertical scale |
| replica | 1 replica | 2 replicas | +1 | Read scaling |

### Storage Gaps

| Storage | Current | Needed (+6mo) | Gap |
|---------|---------|---------------|-----|
| logs | 2TB | 3.6TB | +1.6TB |
| backups | 1TB | 1.5TB | +0.5TB |

Gap Severity Matrix

Severity	Criteria	Action Timeline
Critical	<2 weeks to capacity	Immediate
High	2-4 weeks to capacity	This sprint
Medium	1-3 months to capacity	This quarter
Low	>3 months to capacity	Next quarter

Phase 5: Recommendations

Scaling Strategy Options

Strategy	Best For	Lead Time	Cost Impact
Vertical	DB, stateful	Hours-days	Immediate increase
Horizontal	Stateless compute	Minutes	Linear increase
Reserved	Predictable load	Immediate	30-70% savings
Spot	Batch workloads	Variable	60-90% savings
Auto-scaling	Variable load	Real-time	Pay for use

Recommendation Template

markdown

## Capacity Recommendations

### Immediate Actions (This Sprint)

| Resource | Action | Effort | Cost Impact |
|----------|--------|--------|-------------|
| api ASG | Increase max from 10 to 15 | Low | +$600/mo max |
| worker ASG | Add 3 instances | Low | +$1,080/mo |

### Short-term Actions (This Quarter)

| Resource | Action | Effort | Cost Impact |
|----------|--------|--------|-------------|
| primary DB | Upgrade to r5.4xlarge | Medium | +$900/mo |
| Add read replica | Provision in us-east-1b | Medium | +$900/mo |

### Long-term Considerations (Next Quarter)

| Consideration | Rationale | Next Step |
|---------------|-----------|-----------|
| Sharding strategy | Single DB approaching limits | Architecture review |
| Multi-region | DR + latency benefits | Infrastructure-architect review |

### Cost Summary

| Timeframe | Current | Recommended | Delta |
|-----------|---------|-------------|-------|
| Monthly | $8,000 | $10,980 | +$2,980 |
| Annual | $96,000 | $131,760 | +$35,760 |

Phase 6: Implementation

Implementation Checklist

• Recommendations approved by stakeholders
• Change requests created
• Implementation scheduled (avoid peak hours)
• Rollback plan documented
• Monitoring dashboards ready
• Alert thresholds updated

Post-Implementation Verification

• New capacity provisioned successfully
• Performance metrics improved/stable
• No unexpected errors
• Cost tracking updated
• Documentation updated

Anti-Rationalization Table

Rationalization	Why It's WRONG	Required Action
"We'll scale when we need to"	Reactive scaling causes outages	Proactive capacity planning
"Auto-scaling handles everything"	Auto-scaling has limits and lag	Set appropriate limits
"Current capacity is fine"	Fine today ≠ fine tomorrow	Forecast growth
"Too expensive to over-provision"	Outage cost > over-provisioning cost	Maintain safety margin

Dispatch Specialists

For capacity planning tasks, dispatch:

code

Task tool:
  subagent_type: "ring:infrastructure-architect"
  model: "opus"
  prompt: |
    CAPACITY PLANNING: [scope]
    CURRENT STATE: [baseline]
    GROWTH FORECAST: [projection]
    REQUEST: [specific analysis needed]

For cost analysis of capacity options:

code

Task tool:
  subagent_type: "ring:cloud-cost-optimizer"
  model: "opus"
  prompt: |
    CAPACITY OPTIONS: [options to evaluate]
    CONSTRAINTS: [budget, performance requirements]
    REQUEST: Cost-benefit analysis