CARF Scenario Manager Skill

Purpose

Create, list, and load demo scenarios for the CARF cockpit. Scenarios provide pre-configured causal/Bayesian analysis contexts.

When to Use

•Setting up demos for stakeholders
•Testing specific analysis workflows
•Creating new example use cases
•Loading sample data for development

Available Scenarios

ID	Name	Domain	Analysis Type
`scope3_attribution`	Scope 3 Emissions	Complicated	Causal
`causal_discount_churn`	Discount → Churn	Complicated	Causal
`bayesian_conversion_rate`	Conversion Rate	Complex	Bayesian
`supply_chain_disruption`	Supply Chain Risk	Complex	Bayesian
`financial_anomaly`	Cost Anomaly	Complicated	Causal

Execution Steps

1. List All Scenarios

bash

curl http://localhost:8000/scenarios

Response:

json

{
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "scope3_attribution",
      "name": "Scope 3 Emissions Attribution",
      "description": "Analyze supplier emission drivers",
      "payload_path": "demo/payloads/scope3_attribution.json"
    }
  ]
}

2. Get Scenario Details

bash

curl http://localhost:8000/scenarios/scope3_attribution

Response:

json

{
  "scenario": {
    "id": "scope3_attribution",
    "name": "Scope 3 Emissions Attribution",
    "description": "..."
  },
  "payload": {
    "query": "What causes supplier emissions to increase?",
    "context": {
      "treatment": "supplier_size",
      "outcome": "emissions_kgco2",
      "confounders": ["industry", "location"]
    },
    "causal_estimation": {
      "data": [...],
      "treatment": "supplier_size",
      "outcome": "emissions_kgco2"
    }
  }
}

3. Use Scenario in Query

bash

curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/query \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "query": "What is the causal effect of supplier size on emissions?",
    "scenario_id": "scope3_attribution"
  }'

4. Create New Scenario

File Location: demo/scenarios.json

Add new scenario entry:

json

{
  "id": "new_scenario_id",
  "name": "New Scenario Name",
  "description": "Brief description",
  "payload_path": "demo/payloads/new_scenario.json"
}

Create payload file:

json

// demo/payloads/new_scenario.json
{
  "query": "Default query for this scenario",
  "context": {
    "domain": "business_domain",
    "custom_key": "custom_value"
  },
  "causal_estimation": {
    "data": [
      {"treatment": 1, "outcome": 10, "covariate": 5},
      {"treatment": 0, "outcome": 8, "covariate": 5}
    ],
    "treatment": "treatment",
    "outcome": "outcome",
    "covariates": ["covariate"]
  }
}

5. Run Scenario Simulation (New)

Run "what-if" simulations on scenarios using the new simulation engine.

bash

POST /simulations/run
{
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "name": "Baseline",
      "interventions": [],
      "baseline_dataset_id": "scope3_attribution"
    },
    {
      "name": "Increase Renewables",
      "interventions": [{"variable": "renewable_pct", "value": 0.4}],
      "baseline_dataset_id": "scope3_attribution"
    }
  ]
}

6. Compare Simulation Results

Compare metrics across multiple simulation runs.

bash

POST /simulations/compare
{
  "scenario_ids": ["sim_baseline_123", "sim_renewables_456"]
}

Scenario Payload Schema

typescript

interface ScenarioPayload {
  query: string;                    // Default query text
  context?: {
    domain?: string;                // Business domain hint
    [key: string]: any;             // Custom context
  };
  causal_estimation?: {
    data: Record<string, any>[];    // Tabular data rows
    treatment: string;              // Treatment column name
    outcome: string;                // Outcome column name
    covariates?: string[];          // Covariate columns
  };
  bayesian_inference?: {
    observations?: number[];        // Observed values
    successes?: number;             // For binomial model
    trials?: number;                // For binomial model
    draws?: number;                 // MCMC samples
  };
}

React Cockpit Integration

Scenarios are loaded in DashboardHeader.tsx:

tsx

// Fetch scenarios on mount
const [scenarios, setScenarios] = useState<Scenario[]>([]);

useEffect(() => {
  fetch('/scenarios')
    .then(res => res.json())
    .then(data => setScenarios(data.scenarios));
}, []);

// Scenario selector dropdown
<select onChange={(e) => loadScenario(e.target.value)}>
  {scenarios.map(s => (
    <option key={s.id} value={s.id}>{s.name}</option>
  ))}
</select>

Validation

After adding scenarios:

•Restart API server
•Call GET /scenarios to verify listing
•Call GET /scenarios/{id} to verify payload loads
•Submit query with scenario_id to verify integration
•Test simulation endpoints POST /simulations/run using the new scenarios