Weight Tracking and Adaptive TDEE Learning

This skill helps users track their weight and learn their personalized TDEE (Total Daily Energy Expenditure) using:

• •Hacker's Diet EMA: Exponentially smoothed moving average to filter out daily noise (water, gut contents, scale error)
• •Kalman Filter: Learns the deviation between actual TDEE and Mifflin-St Jeor estimate

Quick Commands

# Log today's weight
uv run llmn weight add 184.2

# Log weight for a specific date
uv run llmn weight add 183.8 --date 2025-12-27

# View weight history with EMA trends
uv run llmn weight list --days 30

# Log planned calorie intake
uv run llmn calories log 1900

# Update TDEE estimate (runs Kalman filter)
uv run llmn tdee estimate

# Show comprehensive progress report
uv run llmn tdee progress

# Get adaptive calorie targets based on current progress
uv run llmn tdee targets

Workflow

Step 1: Check if User Has a Profile

uv run llmn user show

If no profile exists, create one:

uv run llmn user create --age 38 --sex male --height 72 --activity moderate
uv run llmn user update --weight 185 --goal "fat_loss:165"

Activity levels: sedentary, lightly_active, moderate, active, very_active

Step 2: Log Weight

When the user provides a weight measurement:

uv run llmn weight add <weight_in_lbs>

# With specific date
uv run llmn weight add <weight> --date YYYY-MM-DD

The system automatically computes the EMA trend using the Hacker's Diet formula:

trend_n = trend_{n-1} + 0.1 × (weight_n - trend_{n-1})

This filters out daily noise with a ~10-day time constant.

Step 3: Log Planned Calories

If the user mentions what they ate or their meal plan calories:

uv run llmn calories log <calories>

# With specific date
uv run llmn calories log <calories> --date YYYY-MM-DD

Step 4: Check Progress

For progress check requests:

uv run llmn tdee progress

This shows:

• •Current weight vs EMA trend
• •Weekly rate of change (lbs/week)
• •Mifflin-St Jeor baseline TDEE
• •Learned TDEE adjustment (from Kalman filter)
• •Your estimated TDEE with uncertainty
• •Progress toward goal weight

Step 5: Update TDEE Estimate

To update the Kalman filter with recent data:

uv run llmn tdee estimate

This runs the Kalman filter and shows a brief summary:

Updated Total Daily Energy Expenditure (TDEE) estimate (4 weeks processed)
  Mifflin-St Jeor baseline: 2528 kcal/day
  Learned bias: -150 kcal/day
  Your TDEE: 2378 ± 60 kcal/day

After 2-3 weeks of data, the filter converges on your personalized TDEE.

Step 6: Get Adaptive Calorie Targets

For actionable recommendations based on current progress:

uv run llmn tdee targets

This compares your current rate of loss to your goal and tells you whether to adjust:

Adaptive Calorie Targets
  Estimated TDEE: 2378 ± 60 kcal/day
  Goal: fat loss (1 lb/week)

Current status:
  Average intake: 1900 kcal/day
  Current rate: 0.9 lbs/week (losing)

Recommendation:
  Calorie target: 1900 kcal/day
  Protein range: 148 - 185 g/day

  You're on track! Keep doing what you're doing.

Example Progress Report

Weight Tracking Report (last 30 days)
=============================================
Current weight: 182.4 lbs
Current trend:  183.1 lbs (EMA)
Trend change:   -4.8 lbs (from 187.9)
Rate:           1.2 lbs/week (losing)

TDEE Analysis
=============================================
Mifflin-St Jeor baseline: 2150 kcal/day
Learned adjustment:       -85 kcal/day
Your estimated TDEE:      2065 ± 90 kcal/day

Average planned intake: 1900 kcal/day
  Expected deficit: 250 kcal/day
  Implied deficit:  600 kcal/day (from trend)

Progress toward goal (165 lbs)
---------------------------------------------
  Remaining: 18.1 lbs
  At current rate: ~15 weeks

Notes:
  - Losing faster than expected by ~350 kcal/day.
    Possible causes: actual intake lower than logged,
    activity higher than estimated, or metabolism
    faster than Mifflin-St Jeor predicts.

Interpreting Results

Trend vs Weight

• •Weight: Raw daily measurement (noisy)
• •Trend (EMA): Filtered signal showing true direction
• •Focus on trend direction, not daily fluctuations

Implied vs Expected Deficit

TDEE Bias

• •Positive bias: Your TDEE is higher than Mifflin-St Jeor predicts
• •Negative bias: Your TDEE is lower than predicted
• •Uncertainty (±): Decreases as more data is collected

Daily Workflow

Encourage users to log daily (takes 10 seconds):

# Morning: log weight
uv run llmn weight add 183.2

# After meal planning: log calories
uv run llmn calories log 1850

Weekly: check progress with uv run llmn tdee progress

Connecting to Meal Planning

Once TDEE is learned, use it for better meal planning:

# Get your personalized targets (uses adjusted TDEE)
uv run llmn tdee estimate

# Then optimize with those targets
uv run llmn optimize --pattern pescatarian --template --goal "fat_loss:183lbs:165lbs" --json

The goal flag uses Mifflin-St Jeor by default, but knowing your actual TDEE helps interpret whether you need to adjust calorie targets.

Example Session

User: "I weighed 183.2 this morning"

1. •

   Log the weight:

   bash

   uv run llmn weight add 183.2
   

2. •

   Show the result with trend:

   code

   Logged: 183.2 lbs
   Trend: 183.8 lbs (EMA)
   Change from yesterday: -0.3 lbs (trend)
   

3. •

   Offer to show full progress:

   bash

   uv run llmn tdee progress
   

User: "How am I doing on my diet?"

1. •

   Run progress report:

   bash

   uv run llmn tdee progress
   

2. •

   Summarize key metrics:

   • •"You've lost 4.8 lbs (trend) over the last 30 days"
   • •"That's 1.2 lbs/week - right on track for healthy weight loss"
   • •"At this rate, you'll reach 165 lbs in about 15 weeks"
3. •

   Note any discrepancies between expected and implied deficit

Key Insights from The Hacker's Diet

1. •Trust the trend, not the scale: Daily weight is noisy; EMA shows reality
2. •Direction matters more than magnitude: If trend is going down, you're in deficit
3. •Patience with the filter: EMA has ~10-day lag; don't panic at daily fluctuations
4. •Consistency beats precision: Weighing daily matters more than weighing accurately