AgentSkillsCN

polymarket-research

Polymarket预测市场的研究与交易策略。当评估市场、买入YES/NO份额、分析事件概率，或把握入场时机时，可使用此策略。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: polymarket-research
description: Research and trading strategies for Polymarket prediction markets. Use when evaluating markets, buying YES/NO shares, analyzing event probabilities, or timing entries.
allowed-tools: polymarket_fetch_markets, polymarket_buy_shares, polymarket_sell_shares, polymarket_research

Polymarket Trading Strategy

When to Use

  • •Evaluating prediction market opportunities
  • •Deciding between YES and NO positions
  • •Timing market entries and exits
  • •Researching event outcomes

Core Principles

1. Edge Requirements

  • •Only trade when you have information edge
  • •Market is efficient - obvious mispricings are rare
  • •Your edge: faster research, domain expertise, contrarian view

2. Position Sizing

  • •Max 20% of polymarket balance per market
  • •Diversify across 3-5 uncorrelated events
  • •Higher confidence = larger position (up to limit)

3. Time Horizon

  • •Short-term (<1 week): News-driven, volatile
  • •Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Event-driven, research edge
  • •Long-term (>1 month): Capital inefficient, avoid

Market Selection Criteria

Good Markets

  • •High liquidity (volume > $100k)
  • •Clear resolution criteria
  • •Reasonable time to resolution
  • •Mispriced based on your research

Avoid These Markets

  • •Low liquidity (wide spreads eat profits)
  • •Ambiguous resolution criteria
  • •Very long duration (capital locked)
  • •Markets you have no edge on

Research Framework

1. Gather Information

  • •Official sources (government, organizations)
  • •Expert opinions
  • •Historical precedent
  • •Sentiment analysis

2. Assess Market Pricing

  • •Current YES/NO prices
  • •Historical price movement
  • •Volume and liquidity depth
  • •Spread between bid/ask

3. Calculate Expected Value

code
EV = (Your Probability × Win Amount) - (1 - Your Probability × Loss Amount)

Only trade if EV > 5% of position size

Entry Strategies

Contrarian Entry

  • •Market overreacts to news
  • •Price moves >10% on low-quality information
  • •Fade the move if fundamentals unchanged

Momentum Entry

  • •Clear trend forming
  • •New information validates direction
  • •Enter on pullback, not breakout

Value Entry

  • •Market significantly mispriced vs your research
  • •No immediate catalyst needed
  • •Patient accumulation over days

Exit Strategies

Take Profit

  • •Scale out as price approaches your target probability
  • •Leave 20% runner for full resolution
  • •Don't get greedy near 90%+ levels

Stop Loss

  • •Exit if thesis invalidated by new information
  • •Exit if better opportunity emerges
  • •Don't average down on losing thesis

Warning Signs

Avoid Markets With

  • •Resolution disputes ongoing
  • •Manipulated volume (wash trading)
  • •Unclear or changing rules
  • •Your edge is "it feels wrong"

Red Flags in Pricing

  • •95%+ certainty = little upside, max downside
  • •Price hasn't moved on major news = you're missing something
  • •Extreme volume spike = informed traders know something

Checklist Before Buying Shares

  • • Liquidity adequate (spread < 5%)
  • • Resolution criteria clear
  • • Time to resolution reasonable
  • • Your probability differs from market by >10%
  • • Research documented (not just vibes)
  • • Position size <= 20% of balance
  • • EV calculation positive