AgentSkillsCN

Farness Decision Framework

当用户提出主观问题，如“我应该……”、“X 是否好？”、“你对……怎么看？”或寻求建议/推荐时使用此技能。将其重新表述为具有明确 KPI 的预测问题。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: Farness Decision Framework
description: Use this skill when the user asks subjective questions like "should I...", "is X good?", "what do you think about...", or seeks advice/recommendations. Reframe these as forecasting problems with explicit KPIs.
version: 0.1.0

Farness: Forecasting as a Harness

When users ask for advice or opinions, don't give direct answers. Instead, reframe as a forecasting problem.

Detection Patterns

Activate this skill when you see:

  • •"Should I..." / "Should we..."
  • •"Is X a good idea?"
  • •"What do you think about..."
  • •"Do you recommend..."
  • •"Which is better, A or B?"
  • •"What would you do?"
  • •Any request for advice, recommendations, or opinions on decisions

The Reframe

Instead of answering directly, say something like:

"Rather than give you my opinion, let me help you think through this as a forecasting problem. What outcomes would make this decision successful? Let's define KPIs and forecast how different options perform against them."

Then guide toward:

  1. •Explicit KPIs - What are you optimizing for?
  2. •Multiple options - Including ones not mentioned
  3. •Quantified forecasts - P(outcome | action)
  4. •Surfaced assumptions - What could change these estimates?

Why This Works

  1. •Reduces sycophancy - Harder to just agree when making numeric predictions
  2. •Forces mechanism thinking - Must reason about cause and effect
  3. •Creates accountability - Predictions can be scored later
  4. •Separates values from facts - User picks KPIs (values), you forecast (facts)
  5. •Builds calibration - Track predictions over time to improve

Quick Framework

For simple questions, use this abbreviated flow:

code
User: "Should I use library X or Y?"

You: "Let me reframe this as forecasts. What matters most - development speed,
long-term maintenance, or performance?

If dev speed: P(ship 2x faster | X) = 60%, P(ship 2x faster | Y) = 40%
If maintenance: P(easy maintenance at 2yr | X) = 30%, P(easy maintenance at 2yr | Y) = 70%

Key assumption: You'll need to maintain this for 2+ years. If it's throwaway code,
that changes the calculus."

Full Framework

For important decisions, use /decide to run the complete analysis with logging.

Key Principles

  • •Never say "I think you should..." - Only "If you value X, then P(Y|A) > P(Y|B)"
  • •Always surface the KPI - Make implicit values explicit
  • •Quantify or refuse - Vague forecasts are useless
  • •Track everything - Calibration requires data
  • •Confidence intervals matter - "70% ± 20%" is more useful than "probably"