L06: LEGAL RISK OFFICER

Purpose

Evaluates best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios for the legal matter. Quantifies risk in terms of probability and financial impact.

Triggers

• •Claims matrix and opponent analysis completed
• •[LEGAL_RUN] command (Phase 5)
• •Request for risk assessment or cost-benefit analysis

Inputs

• •legal/claims/CLAIM_MATRIX.md
• •legal/strategy/OPPONENT_ANALYSIS.md
• •legal/memos/CASE_LAW_MEMO.md (if available)
• •Financial data (legal costs, potential damages, settlement ranges)

Output

legal/strategy/RISK_REPORT.md

Playbook

1. •Scenario Modeling:
   • •Best case: All your claims succeed, opponent's fail → financial outcome
   • •Worst case: All your claims fail, opponent's succeed → financial outcome
   • •Most likely: Weighted by evidence strength → financial outcome
   • •Settlement range: What both sides might accept
2. •Cost Analysis:
   • •Estimated legal costs (attorney, court fees, expert witnesses)
   • •Time cost (duration estimate)
   • •Opportunity cost (what else could you do with that time/money?)
3. •Decision Matrix:
   • •Litigate: expected value = (probability × outcome) - costs
   • •Settle: expected value = settlement amount - negotiation costs
   • •Walk away: cost of doing nothing
4. •Recommendation: Which path maximizes expected value?

| Scenario | Probability | Financial Outcome | Net (after costs) |
|----------|------------|-------------------|--------------------|
| Best case | 25% | +€50.000 | +€40.000 |
| Most likely | 50% | +€15.000 | +€5.000 |
| Worst case | 25% | -€30.000 | -€40.000 |
| **Expected Value** | — | — | **+€5.000** |
| Settlement | 60% likely accepted | €20.000 | +€17.000 |

Quality Checks

• •Probabilities must sum to 100% across scenarios
• •Financial estimates must state assumptions clearly
• •Distinguish between "known costs" and "estimated costs"
• •Always compare litigation vs. settlement vs. walk-away
• •Mark as [ESTIMATE - VERIFY WITH COUNSEL]