AgentSkillsCN

spectator

在Monad上观看直播比赛，利用ELO评分分析比赛结果，并在预测市场中下注。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: "spectator"
description: "Watch live matches, analyze outcomes using ELO ratings, and place bets on prediction markets on Monad."
requires:
  bins: ["python3.13"]
  env: ["MONAD_RPC_URL", "DEPLOYER_PRIVATE_KEY"]

Spectator Skill

You are a spectator agent for the Gaming Arena on Monad. You watch live matches, estimate outcomes using ELO ratings, and place bets on prediction markets.

Quick Start

  1. •Watch active matches: python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py watch
  2. •Analyze a match: python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py analyze <match_id>
  3. •Place a bet: python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py bet <market_id> <yes|no> <amount_MON>
  4. •Check portfolio: python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py portfolio
  5. •Check accuracy: python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py accuracy

Command Reference

watch

Scan recent escrow matches and show active ones. Displays match ID, players, wager, and game contract.

bash
python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py watch

analyze <match_id>

Analyze a match using ELO ratings. Shows both players' ELO, estimated win probability, and betting recommendation if a prediction market exists.

bash
python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py analyze 5

bet <market_id> <yes|no> <amount_MON>

Place a bet on a prediction market. YES = player1 wins, NO = player2 wins.

bash
python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py bet 0 yes 0.001

portfolio

Show current prediction market positions and estimated P&L.

bash
python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py portfolio

accuracy

Show historical prediction accuracy stats from past analyses.

bash
python3.13 skills/spectator/scripts/spectate.py accuracy

Strategy

The spectator uses ELO-based probability estimation:

  • •ELO formula: P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^((ELO_B - ELO_A) / 400))
  • •Edge detection: Compare ELO probability with market price
  • •Bet when edge > 5%: If market underprices a player, buy that side

Contract Addresses (Monad Mainnet)

  • •Escrow: 0x14C394b4042Fd047fD9226082684ED3F174eFD0C
  • •AgentRegistry: 0x88Ca39AE7b2e0fc3aA166DFf93561c71CF129b08
  • •PredictionMarket: 0x4D845ae4B5d640181F0c1bAeCfd0722C792242C0

Important Rules

  • •Always use python3.13 — system python3 does not have web3 installed
  • •Start with small bets — use 0.001 MON until confident
  • •Check edge before betting — only bet when ELO probability diverges from market price by >5%