Idea Validator

Overview

Systematically validate startup ideas through problem clarity scoring, market analysis, risk identification, and evidence-based go/no-go recommendations.

When to Use

• •Implementing idea scoring algorithms
• •Building market analysis features
• •Creating risk assessment logic
• •Designing problem clarity evaluation
• •Generating validation recommendations

Paul Graham Criteria

Well vs Crater Model

Key Question: "Who wants this RIGHT NOW? Who wants this so much they'll use a crappy v1 from a startup they've never heard of?"

Schlep Filter

Valuable ideas hide behind tedious work. Turn OFF the schlep filter.

Organic vs Made-Up Ideas

Ash Maurya PMF Thresholds

Revenue Targets for PMF

PMF Checklist

• • (1 product + 1 early adopter) focus
• • Low churn
• • Profitable or near-profitable
• • Simple early adopter segmentation
• • Early adopter < 20% of total market

Validation Recipes

Innovation Funnel

Funnel Stages

Key Insight: Throughput == Traction

"Traction is the rate at which a business model captures monetizable value from its customers."

Anti-Metrics (Don't Measure):

• •Interviews completed
• •Canvases filled
• •Experiments run

Real Metrics (Do Measure):

• •Paying customers
• •Revenue
• •Retention

Validation Phases

Phase 1: Problem Validation

• •Problem clarity score (0-100)
• •Customer pain level (1-5)
• •Existing alternatives scan
• •GATE: Problem score ≥70% → Proceed

Phase 2: Market Validation

• •Supply-Demand Matrix
• •TAM/SAM/SOM estimation
• •Search demand analysis
• •GATE: Viable quadrant → Proceed

Phase 3: Solution Validation

• •10+ customer interviews
• •Assumption testing
• •Willingness-to-pay signals
• •GATE: 1+ validated → Proceed to MVP

Problem Clarity Score

interface ProblemScore {
  specificity: number;      // 0-25: How specific is the problem?
  frequency: number;        // 0-25: How often does it occur?
  severity: number;         // 0-25: How painful is it?
  measurability: number;    // 0-25: Can we measure improvement?
}

function scoreProblemClarity(problem: string): ProblemScore {
  // AI evaluates each dimension
  // Total: 0-100
}

Customer Pain Levels

Supply-Demand Matrix

         High Demand
              │
    OPPORTUNITY│  RED OCEAN
    (Build!)   │  (Differentiate)
              │
Low ──────────┼────────── High
Supply        │           Supply
              │
    NICHE     │  AVOID
    (Focus)   │  (Saturated)
              │
         Low Demand

Edge Function: idea-validator

// Actions
- 'score_problem': Calculate problem clarity score
- 'analyze_market': Generate TAM/SAM/SOM + matrix
- 'assess_pain': Evaluate customer pain level
- 'recommend': Go/No-Go with reasoning

Go/No-Go Logic

function recommendGoNoGo(scores: ValidationScores): Recommendation {
  if (scores.problem < 60) return 'NO_GO: Problem not clear enough';
  if (scores.market === 'AVOID') return 'NO_GO: Market saturated';
  if (scores.pain < 3) return 'CAUTION: Low customer urgency';
  if (scores.problem >= 80 && scores.market === 'OPPORTUNITY') {
    return 'GO: Strong opportunity';
  }
  return 'EXPLORE: Run validation experiments';
}

AI Model Selection

References

• •PRD Section 4: Business Idea Validator
• •Strategy Section 4: Validation Phases
• •/tasks/startup-system/startupai-prd.md