AgentSkillsCN

research

研究预测市场——基础概率、结算规则、历史数据

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: research
description: "Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data"
emoji: "🔬"

Research Skill

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.

Commands

Base Rate Lookup

code
/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

Resolution Rules

code
/resolution [market-id]

Historical Analogs

code
/history similar to "Trump 2028"

Research Areas

Political Markets

  • •Incumbent win rates by office type
  • •Primary prediction accuracy
  • •Polling vs outcome correlations
  • •Electoral college patterns

Economic Markets

  • •Fed rate decision patterns
  • •Recession indicator accuracy
  • •Inflation forecast track records
  • •Employment report surprises

Sports/Events

  • •Historical upset frequencies
  • •Weather event base rates
  • •Award show prediction accuracy

Examples

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections

User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements

User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed

Output Format

code
🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS

Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection

Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)

Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose

Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)

Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report