Opportunity Evaluation Skill
Purpose
Provide structured frameworks for evaluating product opportunities from raw signals to prioritized initiatives.
Customer Problem Framework
5-Question Framework
- •
What is the problem?
- •State the observable pain, not the assumed solution
- •Use specific language: "Users spend 47 minutes/week manually copying data between tools"
- •Not: "Users need better integration"
- •
Who are we solving it for?
- •Specific persona with context
- •Their constraints, capabilities, environment
- •Segment size and accessibility
- •
How does it impact strategy?
- •Connection to growth model (acquisition, activation, engagement, retention, monetization)
- •Connection to product vision
- •Connection to competitive positioning
- •
How do we know this is a problem?
- •Data evidence (metrics, support tickets, usage patterns)
- •Qualitative evidence (user interviews, customer feedback)
- •Market evidence (competitor moves, industry trends)
- •
Why do we think this is happening?
- •Root cause hypothesis (not symptom)
- •Contributing factors
- •What would need to change
Signal Types
| Type | Starts With | Investigation Direction |
|---|---|---|
| User insight | What (observed behavior) | Validate: Is this a real problem? Find: Who, where, why |
| Data insight | Where (metric anomaly) | Investigate: What's causing it? Find: What, who, why |
| Competitive | External pressure | Assess: Is this relevant? Decide: React or ignore |
| Strategic | Business direction | Map: What customer problem aligns? |
Business Context Evaluation
Three Dimensions
Monetization Potential:
- •Direct revenue opportunity (new revenue, expansion, upsell)
- •Indirect revenue (retention improvement, reduced CAC)
- •Quantify with methodology, not just "high/medium/low"
Strategic Fit:
- •Vision alignment (does this take us where we want to go?)
- •Platform leverage (does this enable other products/features?)
- •Defensibility (Hamilton 7 Powers: scale economies, switching costs, cornered resource, counter positioning, branding, network effects, process power)
Competitive Pressure:
- •What are competitors doing in this space?
- •Market timing (early, on-time, late)
- •Risk of inaction
Prioritization
Impact Assessment
| Factor | Question |
|---|---|
| Impact potential | How big is the expected return? |
| Time to return | How quickly will we see results? |
| Compounding vs linear | Does this enable future bets or is it one-time value? |
| Multi-outcome impact | Does it serve multiple business objectives? |
| Order of operations | Must this happen before other things can? |
Differentiation Classification
| Type | Definition | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Differentiator | Unique advantage competitors don't have | Build and market aggressively |
| MMR | Minimum market requirement to compete | Must have but don't over-invest |
| Neutralizer | Catches up to competitor advantage | Build to parity, not beyond |
Risk vs Impact Matrix
- •High Risk, High Impact → Big Bets (invest if strategically important)
- •Low Risk, High Impact → No Brainers (do these first)
- •Low Risk, Low Impact → Quick Wins (fill in gaps)
- •High Risk, Low Impact → Duds (avoid)
HMW Framing
Good HMW statements are:
- •Specific enough to guide solution design
- •Broad enough to allow creative solutions
- •Focused on outcome, not implementation
Examples:
- •Good: "How might we enable deskless workers to resolve IT issues without a desktop computer?"
- •Too broad: "How might we improve the employee experience?"
- •Too narrow: "How might we add a mobile app for factory workers?"