AgentSkillsCN

dcf-modeler

构建 DCF 模型，纳入终值计算、WACC 汇总以及敏感性分析表格。

SKILL.md
--- frontmatter
name: dcf-modeler
description: Builds DCF models with terminal value, WACC calculation, sensitivity tables
allowed-tools:
  - Read
  - Write
  - Glob
  - Grep
  - Bash
  - WebFetch
metadata:
  specialization: venture-capital
  domain: business
  skill-id: vc-skill-023

DCF Modeler

Overview

The DCF Modeler skill builds Discounted Cash Flow valuation models for venture capital analysis. While DCF is less common for early-stage VC, it supports late-stage growth investments, exit analysis, and LP return modeling where cash flow projections are meaningful.

Capabilities

Cash Flow Projection

  • •Project operating cash flows
  • •Model capital expenditure requirements
  • •Estimate working capital changes
  • •Handle loss-making growth phase transitions

Discount Rate Calculation

  • •Calculate WACC for appropriate structures
  • •Apply venture-appropriate discount rates
  • •Adjust for stage and risk profile
  • •Model cost of equity with VC premiums

Terminal Value Estimation

  • •Calculate terminal value via exit multiple
  • •Apply perpetuity growth method
  • •Hybrid terminal value approaches
  • •Terminal value sanity checks

Sensitivity Analysis

  • •Build sensitivity tables
  • •Model key assumption impacts
  • •Calculate value driver sensitivities
  • •Create scenario matrices

Usage

Build DCF Model

code
Input: Financial projections, assumptions
Process: Build cash flow model, calculate value
Output: DCF valuation, model outputs

Calculate Discount Rate

code
Input: Company profile, capital structure
Process: Calculate appropriate discount rate
Output: WACC/discount rate, methodology notes

Estimate Terminal Value

code
Input: Terminal year financials, exit assumptions
Process: Calculate terminal value
Output: Terminal value, percentage of total value

Run Sensitivity Analysis

code
Input: Base case model, sensitivity parameters
Process: Calculate sensitivities across ranges
Output: Sensitivity tables, tornado charts

DCF Components

ComponentVC Considerations
Projection Period5-10 years to steady state
Discount Rate20-40%+ for early stage
Terminal ValueOften 60-80%+ of total value
Cash FlowsMay be negative for years
Exit MultiplePrimary terminal method

Integration Points

  • •DCF Analysis Process: Core modeling skill
  • •Financial Model Validator: Validate model inputs
  • •Multiple Calculator: Terminal value multiples
  • •Sensitivity Analyst (Agent): Support analysis

Discount Rate Considerations

StageTypical Discount Rate
Seed40-60%
Series A35-50%
Series B30-40%
Growth20-30%
Late Stage15-25%

Best Practices

  1. •DCF is supplementary for early-stage VC
  2. •Use realistic projections, not hockey sticks
  3. •Heavily weight terminal value sensitivities
  4. •Consider probability-weighted scenarios
  5. •Triangulate with VC method and comparables